Werewolf: Round 4

chaosfaction wrote:

markmarkadam wrote:

chaosfaction wrote:I doubt krafts a wolf. He's consistently voted for the wolves. But of course after 2 trys the scry never lies

no, no he can lol, the scry has a 3/4 chance of getting the person they check correct, so while unlikely, if you scry twice and you get a wolf, you may still be wrong. Also if you scry the beast, he will always come back as a villager.

75% is good enough for me, and you cant act about as if everyones the beast of course captain craft cant be because he came back as a wolf the first time apparently

right, but the problem is, the beast is going to inevitably be one of the people we are almost sure we can trust...

RedOctober is far too kind to be guilty, but I don't really doubt Jman at all. So, I'm sorry!

markmarkadam wrote:no, no he can lol, the scry has a 3/4 chance of getting the person they check correct, so while unlikely, if you scry twice and you get a wolf, you may still be wrong. Also if you scry the beast, he will always come back as a villager.

That's not the full story.

• There are two scries.
  
• One scry has an initial chance of 75%. If he scries the same person two nights in a row the second night has a 95% chance.
  
• The second scry has an initial chance of 50%. For all intents and purposes this first scry on a person is completely useless. The next night he has a 75% chance and the third one 95%, if he scries the same person that many times in a row.
  
• Like markmark said, the beast comes back villager every time. This can be used against him since this only happens with beast. Just scry him several times with the weak scry with someone else in between. Unfortunately, the process takes many days.
  

Now, while we don't know if the weak or strong scry checked RedOctober and how many times he was checked, I'll play along with Jman for now. He seems to know what he's doing. It's going to fail at some point though, and it might as well be today. Mathematically, if you checked each of our targets with a 75% shot, one out of four wolves you've pointed out should actually be a villager.

RedOctober, though you may be a statistical error, we don't have a lot of choices right now.

Alright guys, I'm finally back

But I'm confused ._.

Could someone please list a list of casualties if it is not already done? I would help me get an idea of who got lynched or killed by wolves.

Zed Di Dragon wrote:Living:

WowzerAnne
Jman
Zeddy
Cosine
Sine
AlphaDecay90
RayOfLight010
CaptainKraft
Unknown3
markmarkadam
chaosfaction
truecrypt32
esque
finkrocks
Ostentation
NOT THA WAREWOLF
chartreuse
Quantumvm
Jakobs98
Bobabow
RedOctober
thecat100
wquist
blah2355
PELIGRO
Sabb
Slade
Risque


Dead:
Buzzlightyear
SirGuy
orange08
Snail
deviant
Danger

The ones marked in red were wolves.

List of casualties as requested.

May I suggest this list is added to the first post to help innactive people catch up?

redoctober only other person im suspicious of i dont have enough evidence yet

kk red october it is then

Well then, I vote Red october

I vote RedOctober, too.

Living/dead list added to first post as per suggestion by concerned parties.

RedOctober it is then

If I'm not mistaken, there are now 13 votes against RedOctober. It seems that the bandwagon appears to be rolling full speed. You should probably start making your case.

Ostentation wrote:If I'm not mistaken, there are now 13 votes against RedOctober. It seems that the bandwagon appears to be rolling full speed. You should probably start making your case.

Red's argument won't have any weight at this point. How could he overturn Jman's credibility after all that's happened? I probably wouldn't be responding much either with that many people against me.

Lol very true. The movement has too much momentum.

honestly, my vote doesnt even matter at this point, but i guess ill make it Redoctober

Just a warning. The following people are pending autolynch should they not post any lynch votes in the near future. I advise you speak to avoid hanging.

• PELIGRO
  
• Risque
  
• Ostentation

EDIT: I just realized that two of these people, PELIGRO and Risque, are still away on vacation but should be returning really soon. I'm not sure what we'll do about it should they not make it in time, because they might not even be able to post before day's end. I'm trying to devise a fair solution.

Ostentation wrote:Lol very true. The movement has too much momentum.

Providence wrote:Just a warning. The following people are pending autolynch should they not post any lynch votes in the near future. I advise you speak to avoid hanging.

• PELIGRO
  
• Risque
  
• Ostentation

*COUGH* *COUGH*

Lol I keep forgetting that I haven't voted in a while. Unfortunately, seeing as there is no alternative, I am now forced to jump on the bandwagon as well to avoid autolynch. So I vote for RedOctober.

Today I was attempting to hold off my vote until I was more certain, but it looks like there's little time left.

RedOctober it is.

Providence wrote:Just a warning. The following people are pending autolynch should they not post any lynch votes in the near future. I advise you speak to avoid hanging.

• PELIGRO
  
• Risque
  
• Ostentation

EDIT: I just realized that two of these people, PELIGRO and Risque, are still away on vacation but should be returning really soon. I'm not sure what we'll do about it should they not make it in time, because they might not even be able to post before day's end. I'm trying to devise a fair solution.

It's usually normal to make exceptions for vacationers/people who will be gone from their computer for awhile. Autolynch is just to get rid of people who sign up and never come back, really.

as long as we're sure they havent been on the forums (can check "last logged in date in admin panel) in those 3 days, and they told you that they would be gone, i dont mind letting them stay another day.

i can vouche for them. they really are both out of town.

Danger was also by the way, during the time when we lynched her.

Slade wrote:as long as we're sure they havent been on the forums (can check "last logged in date in admin panel) in those 3 days, and they told you that they would be gone, i dont mind letting them stay another day.

Neither have been on since late Monday night/really early Tuesday morning. With that in mind, I'll allow them both a one day extension. And with that, plus Ostentation's earlier vote, all idlers are now taken care of.

Also, on the topic of vacations, I myself will be leaving town this upcoming Tuesday and won't be returning until late Saturday.. In my absence, I'm relegating host controls to Snail because I can't promise timely access to a computer. I'll still be able to provide assistance and post every now and again on my free time, but for the most part Snail's got control during those few days. Once he takes over, and of course we'll make a post to that effect so there won't be any surprise, be sure to send in secret role PM's to him. He's sworn secrecy and is now impartial.

Thanks and best of luck to you all.

Providence wrote:In my absence, I'm relegating host controls to Snail because I can't promise timely access to a computer.

Wait wha-