Werewolf: Round 4

If it was't obvious from my previous post, I am indeed voting to lynch CaptainKraft.

truecrypt32 wrote:have to say that while there is some "evidence" against Jman, I'm not ready to pull the trigger and call him a wolf.

What evidence? One of the scryers in our network turned out to be an unreliable source?

AlphaDecay90 wrote:

truecrypt32 wrote:have to say that while there is some "evidence" against Jman, I'm not ready to pull the trigger and call him a wolf.

What evidence? One of the scryers in our network turned out to be an unreliable source?

....

JMAN is the only one who knew of the scryers... And they died back to back.
... Thats.. Sorry.. Kind of a big deal you all keep ignoring.


And the math isnt that hard .. You're making it seem like a feat,

Scenario: 6 wolves.
JMAN is Devil or Beast.
Beast puts 2 votes for JMAN (he can vote for himself)
Devil gets no vote

Only 4 wolves remaining.

Only ONE WOLF would have had to vote for JMAN to allow it to be a no kill that night,
Thats a far cry from your claimed "need to be in contact with all of them from week two"

Also. Who ever said the baners blocked him or are in contact with him? HE DID.
they wont openly say "HEY, i never baned him!" because that would expose them to the wolves if he were lying.


Like ive said to the 5 of you who are defending JMAN.
show me something else and i can change my vote. I am not 100% on JMAN but i need more than "he was a villager the last two games" to convince me either a. Someone else is a wolf, or b. he's a villagEr this game. His status the last two games mean nothing once we started this games...except increasing odds for him to be a wolf since he hadnt been the last 2 games.

And JMAN- you want to defend yourself.. Please do.


Explain to me how its possible both scryguys are taken out so fast with anything besides dumb luck or sabotage?

Im honestly asking and will consider what you say.

Let me remind you that dumb luck's had a pretty strong influence this round...

And what of the evidence against CaptainKraft? Even if you were to suspect Jman, it seems like a bit of a no brainer that someone who voted for the death of 2 villagers and accused 2 others would be a bit more suspicious than the only person who's successfully led us this entire round, and responsible for the lynching of three wolves.

Are we seriously trying the lynch Jman!? i'll be honest, at first i was skeptical of him, but he's killed 3 wolves, and has led the game. It got to the point that he became such a valued villager that wolf votings were based around his sole actions.

You all seem to forget the night nobody died, and how providence made it out like Jman was going to, obviously the wolves bandwagoned to kill him, and the baners protected him. Why would that happen if he was a fellow wolf?

Also if you notice how we just lost 2 scries, maybe that's because the baners have been protected Jman, and the wolves knew it! He's letting himself be killed because he knows he, a normal villager, shouldn't be protected constantly by baners, otherwise the devil and beast will just pick people off and win! He's literally saying it's ok if you guys try to lynch him, do you understand what that means?
He is the Christ like figure of this game. You're trying to crucify our Jesus! why!?

Also, is it really worth it to lynch somebody solely based on word of mouth evidence over actual statistics from scrys?

I can't express how disappointing I am in the fact this bandwagon against him has gotten any votes, i vote for CaptainKraft

I'm going to present two scenarios, and then we can evaluate which one seems more likely.

Scenario 1 (Jman is a wolf) wrote:Jman meets up with his fellow wolves, sacrifices three of them and in the end even receives the approval of his most vocal opponent, Slade. At this point the scries and baners willingly reveal themselves to him. (Though the actual catalyst was when he accused wquist, the scry, and his only means of self-defense was the reveal.)

Three out of eight wolves to get to know at least four out of seven important villager roles. A risky trade, but if it's indeed the case I think it looks like it paid off.

The effectiveness of this strategy speaks for itself. By the fifth day, not a single villager dared to speak against him. After all, if anyone did he would be executed the next day with utmost certainty. Jman had effectively established his dictatorship in the village.

Of particular suspicion are the following points:
-Jman's lengthy debate with Slade where Slade proposed the very role Jman now finds himself in.
-Three wolves in three days. That's a bit too effective. Even two scries should have pretty low odds of doing that.
-Two scries dying in two nights immediately after Jman gets to know their roles.
-That night when Jman was baned and nobody died. It was obvious that Jman was baned that night, so why didn't the wolves attack somebody else? Does it stand to reason that Jman asked all wolves to vote on himself, if anyone, in order to make himself seem like a valuable target for the baners and leaving the scries exposed? Perhaps. Jman had not met at least the second baner at this point, hence his public announcement. Both baners probably shielded him, that's why they chose to trust him later on.

Scenario 2 (Jman is a pretty cool guy lynches wolves and doesn't afraid of anything) wrote:
Jman spots orange08 doing activity at night and in general acting kinda suspicious. He decides a lynching is in order. Upon seeing his success, he tries this method another time and comes up successful. It's not really luck as much as diligent detective-work.

Checking night-cycles can just as well turn up a scry or a baner. I don't know if Jman simply didn't think of this or he was, in fact, hoping to hit one of them sooner or later so that they could reveal themselves to him and he could have contact with them. Unfortunately, this immediately revealed wquist.

Here's the thing: wquist died second. The Devil and wolves in general have had 5 nights to search for a scrier and it's possible that they found Cosine during one of these. Wquist was revealed very publically when Jman suddenly retracted his bandwagon. It was obvious to everyone: wquist was important. The wolves waited with killing Cosine. Perhaps they wanted to try contacting him and use him for inside info. But then they saw a better opportunity when wquist was revealed: they could kill both of them immediately after Jman's killstreak in order to cast suspicion on him.

Don't you see? The devil didn't have to be incredibly super lucky and find two scries; they only had to be a bit lucky and find one! The other was revealed to them plain as day.

Two more points:
-There is no reason not to lynch Jman even if he's a villager. I assume bother baners have been introduced to eachother at this point and there is no reason for Jman to delegate information from them to the village. With both scries dead Jman serves no purpose in terms of role.
-There is no reason to lynch Jman even if he's a wolf. If he's a wolf, he already knows both the baners and both the scries are dead. If he's a wolf, he's surely shared this information with the lot of them already, thus his death would accomplish nothing save for bagging a single wolf. Letting him live might make him slip up and reveal his fellows in one way or another.

Honestly, though? Jman is intelligent, but he's not clever. I don't think he's capable of pulling off the Xanatosian scheme for which he's accused.

Let's see what's behind door number CaptainKraft.

Jman wrote:I think zeddy and I would have the best sleuth-baby.

We will name him JDragon. Or perhaps Zm-... no. We will name him JDragon.

I'm pretty cool guy lynches wolves doesn't afraid of anything.

Also, speaking of cleverness, who knows? Maybe one round the gods will decide to make me an important role instead of a noob villager and I can work my real magic.

How about DragonMan?

Wondering where everyone else is.
It seems like we never get a full turn out for a vote.. that makes me Le Sad.



JMAN- Previously I had labeled ZED as someone I suspected. When I voiced it, you agreed with me, but then "flipped a coin" (because that's a logical way), and you also later listed Zed as a suspect.
Now, with your grand report... Zed is suddenly missing.
You haven't explained that at all, but why is he no longer on your suspect list? You haven't listed the Scrys at all for targeting him, so why would he have been suspect but now isn't?
also..

Alpha..

AlphaDecay90 wrote:
[*]Zed Di Dragon (villager)

You have zero way of claiming Zed is a villager, we never targeted him. You are using a 100% baseless claim that he is a villager as evidence against someone else.

You three seem very adamant to protect each other- just saying.


Ok.

You all are so against voting for JMAN because he is your savior? He is your "JESUS"! (come on...)
I am curious if you all would vote for Zed then.. or all of you would vote for Alpha?
You say your main reason for not voting JMAN is because what he's done.. ok cool. Vote for one of the other two who are all clearly suspicious.

If not. Then it's pretty obvious where your allegiance lay.

Instead of being all anal and calling anything that moves suspicious, just look at yourself.


First, I never "flipped a coin" with anyone. Zed and alphadecay have both conversated with me via PM and other methods and I trust them both completely. Just because you haven't talked to anyone, doesn't mean others aren't trying to network.

If anyone is fighting for the wrong cause, it's you. Instead of assuming every single person is a wolf who has to prove themselves innocent, why don't you consider people as innocent until proven guilty.

Your constant grousing is hindering the villagers efforts more than any of us are as of now. Your "logic" is no better than any of our logic, so that's moot and you should stop acting like your word is best.

The funny part is that I know you are a villager due to the scries, but you're hurting us more than even the wolves are right now. In a time where we need to be especially united since the scries are dead, you sure are splitting us apart. Just stop.

Jman wrote:

Instead of being all anal and calling anything that moves suspicious,

...Just stop.

I dont remember calling everything that moves suspicious. Only the three people who are acting suspicious.

Scries dying back to back isn't something to balk at. It means there's a leak. Ignoring that fact is incompetent.

The purpose of this game is to play detective.

You honestly want the entire village base to NOT speak out when they have suspicions and NOT talk when they see something odd like a person saying "KRAFT IS GUILTY because he voted for ZED who is a villager!" - when we have no idea if ZED is a villager.

I know you want carte blanche and you want everyone to just not talk... but everyone here is entitled to have their opinion- that's how progress is made and discovery happens.

You want me to "just stop" then you're welcome to play a game where you represent 24 villagers and there is one person representing 8 wolves.
Not how it works here cupcake, sorry.


You say you know i'm a villager- and you know Zed and Alpha are because you PM them.

Ok. Kraft is a villager. I know this. Do not vote for him. Pick someone else.

Anal cupcakes? Ok guys settle down were all on the same side here. Also please explain why Kraft is not a wolf

I've been talking to him in PM.


If that's not good enough evidence, then neither is JMANs claims about the other two.

If it is, then do not vote for him.

Sigh...

I take a break for about 24 hours, read 5 pages of posts, and realize I am DOOMED!

Unfortunately, I can't argue against a 75% scry... people love their probability and statistics. I've already resigned that I am going to die, and I'm sorry I wasn't less suspicious. When the day cycle ends, you will lose another villager.

As for my ideas, Slade's argument for JMan being suspicious makes a lot of sense. JMan is contacted by the the scries and they all of a sudden fall dead? Not cool man, not cool.

Also, someone mentioned that I've voted for a bunch of villagers. Two of those I voted for because I blindly followed the "all knowing" JMan who told us RedOctober and Wquist were wolves. One of the other votes that you claimed was a villager was Chaosfaction. If I'm not mistaken, he's still alive... so we don't know what he is yet. I also stated later that he isn't as suspicious as I thought... once again because of JMan's points that defended Chaos.

JMan has done a ton of suspicious stuff, but I am not sure that I'm ready to vote for him, seeing as how he helped us lynch 3 wolves.

What I would like to do is go over everyone's activity and find out who is laying in the shadows, barely speaking on the forums, and trying to stay inconspicuous. My vast amount of activity should be evidence enough that I'm not a wolf, because that is what gets wolves killed... unless of course you lynch 3 wolves right off the bat.

Anyway, I'm done writing for now, my villagers have betrayed me, and I have some research to do. Hopefully I can give you guys some evidence towards an actual wolf before I die.

Thanks for reading. Here's hopin' I find some evidence before tonight.

Slade wrote:I've been talking to him in PM.


If that's not good enough evidence, then neither is JMANs claims about the other two.

If it is, then do not vote for him.

It's true. Slade is here because I invited him. We have gamed together for years and he's the best strategist I've ever seen.. We've been in contact via PM quite a bit, and neither of us are wolves, sorry guys.

JMan also contacted me, I responded, and I never heard from him again. If he was speaking with me through PM, or even tried to find out if I was a villager, he might know the truth.

I will change my vote from JMAN, who I am not sure is a wolf-
If you guys change yours from KRAFT, who I'm pretty f-in sure is not.


Better to pick random than someone we're pretty sure isn't one.

AlphaDecay90 wrote:Let me remind you that dumb luck's had a pretty strong influence this round...

And what of the evidence against CaptainKraft? Even if you were to suspect Jman, it seems like a bit of a no brainer that someone who voted for the death of 2 villagers and accused 2 others would be a bit more suspicious than the only person who's successfully led us this entire round, and responsible for the lynching of three wolves.

You act as if we know that the live members are actually villagers. You also act as if I knew that those two votes for dead villagers, were in fact villagers. You also fail to note that I was following JMan's recommendations when I voted to lynch those two dead villagers.

The evidence that you have brought up against me means nothing; however, the evidence that has been brought up against JMan actually makes a little sense. This is a game of deception, and JMan seems to be doing a great job in that category.

With that having been said, I'm not ready to vote for JMan because of the risk that we lose a valuable villager. I'm just pointing out that there is more compelling evidence that says he is a wolf than there is saying I am a wolf.

Jman, if you wanna lead the crowd, you better be able to handle situations like these. Professionaly. It looks like you were panicking a page or two ago and... That's just silly, really. Some of the ideas presented against you are logical. Some of the ideas presented for you are logical. Anyway, I'm really just a bit confused. So my vote today goes to...
CaptainKraft for best album!

Here is my final post before you lynch me. I would like to let my suspicions and evidence be known before I die so that the villagers have as much information as possible. Just because you guys killed one of your own doesn't mean I don't want you to win. Anyway, here is what I have decided with the little info that I have:


NOT SUSPICIOUS
--------------
zed di dragon
sine
alphaDecay
chaosfaction
slade
truecrypt
jakobs
thecat
blah
ostentation

reasons: These people have been moderately to highly active and I found no compelling evidence in their activity when they did post to the forums. They just didn't do anything fishy.


SUSPICIOUS - LOW ACTIVITY
------------------------
wowzeranne
chartreuse
quantumvm
risque
rayoflight
esque
finkrocks
peligro
sabb

reasons: These people have either had a very low number of posts, or a moderate number of posts with little-to-no input. While reading through their posts it just seemed a little suspicious that they were trying to stay under the radar. That isn't enough evidence to condemn them, but it is enough to keep a watchful eye on them.

note: the last five people listed seem to be in danger of autolynching because of their EXTREMELY low activity. It is tough to decide whether we should target them to minimize losses, or to ignore them and go for more active wolves. Either way, their activity is less than ideal and should be noted.


SUSPICIOUS - OTHER REASONS
--------------------------
1. wowzeranne, quantumvm
2. not the werewolf
3. unknown, markmark, bobabow

group 1: These two people had relatively low activity and were already mentioned for that. The additional evidence against them is that not a single post by them was an original thought. These two seem to just be following the crowd. As a wolf, this would prove valuable because no suspicions would arise due to loud accusations. As a villager, this would just make them sort of useless. It could go either way, but it is valuable to note.

group 2: This person has also had relatively low activity and voted three times. The important part is that all three votes were for villagers. It also seemed like he had no good reason for each vote. Suspicious if you ask me.

group 3: These three people are in a special category. The reason they seem suspicious is because of their vehement defense of JMan. JMan has had suspicions brought against him already and the evidence either points to him being a great villager, or a great wolf. If he is indeed a wolf, I think it is likely that he is the beast or the devil, or some sort of extra powerful wolf. If that is the case, he would be in contact with ordinary wolves and would also be orchestrating attacks on important targets (ie the two scries we lost recently). With this possibility, it brings more suspicions to light, namely towards the people who are defending JMan with all they've got. No wolf would want their precious leader to die.

CONCLUSION
-----------
JMan is the center of attention (which is why I did not include him in the list). His seemingly devious activity and very unexpected and overblown response make him a prime suspect IMO. He is either our hero or he will be the death of many villagers. Because of that, I will not be voting for him just yet. We, as villagers, need more time to weigh the risk vs reward when it comes to JMan. I am willing to give him one more round to make a case for himself, but I would also like to hang a wolf in the meantime.

Therefore, the most suspicious person that I have found outside of him, during my investigation, is markmarkadam, who will be my vote for today. My evidence is "iffy" at best, but his activity has been relatively low, and he has suspiciously become more active when JMan was being accused. It makes sense that a wolf would try to keep a low profile, but willing to come out of hiding to protect his leader.

All villagers please shed as much light on my suspicions as possible, and for anyone I have accused, please defend yourself accordingly. I am by no means infallible, and I would hate to vote for another villager to be lynched.

Makes sense to me,

Very concise KRAFT.

I have others I place above markmark on the suspicion list, but I have noticed the same things you have- which is what this is about- catching the people who are trying to be crafty.

Therefore- because I know I will not get the votes for the person I really want to target.


markmarkadam it is. rayoflight010 it is

Listen guys. KRAFT is not a wolf. Change your vote.

As I am not home yet to adress your arguments, I'll just keep it short and sweet for now. I didn't really suspect captainkraft. However, my reliance on the scry results were urging me to, which I now disagree with and doubt were correct.


My final vote will be directed at RayOfLight010. Before we kill any of each others trusted friends, let's compromise at least for today and kill a more inactive suspicious person like him.


Also, I changed my vote from kraft, so I hope you'll change your vote off of another one of my very trusted friends markmarkadam. Rayoflight is the best guess until we get this sorted out.

Jman wrote:As I am not home yet to adress your arguments, I'll just keep it short and sweet for now. I didn't really suspect captainkraft. However, my banerbuddy was urging me to, which I now disagree with.


My final vote will be directed at RayOfLight010. Before we kill any of each others trusted friends, let's compromise at least for today and kill a more inactive suspicious person like him.


Also, I changed my vote from kraft, so I hope you'll change your vote off of another one of my very trusted friends markmarkadam. Rayoflight is the best guess until we get this sorted out.

I am willing to change my vote to rayoflight010. He is also on my suspicious list, so it makes sense to me. Now, let's just hope it's not to late to save me arse!

It's not that I really suspected you Captain. In fact, I made a .txt of the people I thought were villager buddies, and you were on it until my scry got you 75% wolf. I don't doubt it was a false scry though, which is why I so willingly changed my vote. If you try to convince your buddies to change their votes, I'll try to change my buddies minds too.

Jman wrote:It's not that I really suspected you Captain. In fact, I made a .txt of the people I thought were villager buddies, and you were on it until my scry got you 75% wolf. I don't doubt it was a false scry though, which is why I so willingly changed my vote. If you try to convince your buddies to change their votes, I'll try to change my buddies minds too.

Done and done

Danke. To my loyal followers, if I still have any, I request that you vote for RayOfLight instead of CaptainKraft. It seems like we're just 2 separate bands of villagers that are unfortunately against each other. I think if we can honestly just trust each other and unite, it will give us great chances. I think I have accounted for 13 people, including myself, that I think are villagers. That leaves 12 people I am suspicious of. 5/12 aren't really good odds, but it's better than killing people some of us know is innocent.